CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-10-25T15:12:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Oct 26 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. At 25/1503 UTC, Region 1882 (S08E54,
Dao/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X2 flare that was associated with
Types II (2078 km/s) and IV radio emissions with another Castelli U
radio signature including a 370 sfu Tenflare. SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery depicted a partial-halo CME emerging from the east limb
beginning at 25/1512 UTC. WSA-Enlil model output suggest this CME will
merge with the ejecta from the 24 October M9 flare and arrive on the
28th.
Region 1882 also produced six M-class events, including an M1 flare at
26/0937 UTC. A Type II (1275 km/s) radio sweep was reported with this
flare, beginning at 26/0931 UTC and dimming was apparent in SDO/AIA 193
imagery south of the region. This event has yet to be observed in
available coronagraph imagery. Region 1882 continued to evolve in both
area, spot count and magnetic complexity.
Regions 1875 (N07W44, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 1877 (S13W23,
Dhi/beta-gamma) remained the largest on the visible disk. Region 1875
grew slightly while 1877 was relatively stable. Between 26/0442-0747
UTC, EUV dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery south of and
between Regions 1875 and 1877. A CME was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery emerging from the west beginning at 26/0700 UTC. 
This event has not yet been modeled, but a preliminary analysis using
available coronagraph imagery suggests it was moving at approximately
400 km/s and may have an Earth-directed component.
A second dimming event was observed between 26/0827-1015 UTC in the same
vicinity and brightening was evident in Regions 1875 and 1877 around the
same time as the M1 flare from Region 1882. This event has not yet been
observed in coronagraph imagery. Finally, a filament eruption was in
progress in the southwestern quadrant at the time of this writing.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at M-class levels (NOAA Scale R1-R2
Minor-Moderate) with a further chance for X-class flares (NOAA Scale R3-
Strong) for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was slightly elevated.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
flux levels for a majority of the next three days (26 - 28 Oct). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is generally expected to remain below
alert threshold levels for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct). However,
due to the recent major activity and magnetic complexity of Regions
1875, 1877 and 1882, a chance for an S1-Minor proton event exists.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind at the ACE spacecraft reflected a couple of possible weak
transient passages. Speed began near 350 km/s declining to 280 km/s by
the end of the period. A discontinuity in the density data was observed
around 25/1925 UTC coupled with a drop in temperature and a shift in the
Phi angle. Bt, however remained less than 5 nT through the entire
period and Bz never dipped below about -3 nT.
.Forecast...
The latest WSA-Enlil run indicates potential transient passages mid to
late on day 1 (26 Oct) and around the middle of day 3 (28 Oct). Solar
wind speed is not expected to increase significantly with these
transient passages.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to
unsettled levels, with a chance for active conditions, on days one and
two (26 - 27 Oct) with the arrival of the 22 October M4 CME. Day three
(28 Oct) is expected to see isolated active intervals and a slight
chance for minor storm conditions when the ejecta from the M9 event of
24 October and the X-class events of 25 October arrives.
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